MGI Weekly round-up | 17 November 2017
Stories MGI has been tracking this week:
- Greece to distribute its excess primary surplus to people hit by austerity
- New gas discovery in Morocco
- GAM asset manager is warning of a crisis in Turkey
And as always, we feature content from the MGI data and analysis platform, a summary of the week’s key statistical releases, and a look to the week ahead in data. In this newsletter, we use the MGI platform (NATSTAT section) to look at the real GDP YoY % change in Morocco over the last years.
Greece to distribute €1.4 billion, as the primary surplus exceeds the target
Greek Prime Minister Tsipras said on Monday that the government would distribute about €1.4 billion to pensioners and other crisis-hit people. The money is available because the country exceeded its primary surplus target - 1.75% of GDP - for 2017. About €720 million will be distributed to 3.4 million Greeks as a one-off, tax-free benefit, based on income and wealth criteria and household size, €315 million will go to pensioners while, €360 million will be payed to Greece’s Public Power Corporation (DEH), so electric prices won't go up, Reuters reports.
New gas discovery in Morocco
A new gas discovery was announced by the British company SDX Energy from its Moroccan drilling campaign. The discovery was made in the KSR-15 well at the Sebou area in Kanitra. The well is expected to be put in production by the beginning of December 2017. SDX has another development well – KSR-14 – which was drilled in the same area in September of this year. “These first two successful wells keep moving us closer to achieving our target of increasing local gas sales volumes in Morocco by 50% in 2018”, the company’s CEO said.
Morocco has one of the best E&P fiscal regimes in the world while, the local supply shortfall of gas offers profit opportunities for regional producers, The North African Postreports.
GAM asset manager is warning of a crisis in Turkey
An investment director at GAM – a global asset management company – expressed concerns about the current situation in Turkey and said that a crisis is possible in the coming year. Turkey is an exception to a broad trend of decreasing balance of payment deficits and rising foreign exchange reserves observed in emerging markets. Moreover, high inflation – which can increase further due to high oil prices – and the boom in the construction sector, represent other destabilizing factors. “So, lots of foreign debt - tick; current account - tick; property boom - tick, politics - tick. You go through the list and it’s a recipe for trouble”, the director said.
The Turkish national currency has depreciated by almost 15% against the dollar since September of this year, the bond yield stands at a record-high level while the Central Bank’s inflation forecast for the end of 2017 was revised upwards. While, according to S&P rating agency, this month the economy had responded positively to the "strong fiscal push", stability could be upset if this policy proves insufficient to control inflationary and currency pressure, Reuters reports.
Featured content from the MGI data and analysis portal
In this newsletter, we use the MGI platform (NATSTATS section) to see the real GDP YoY % change in Morocco in recent years. Data is available from 2013Q3 to 2017Q2. As we can see, in the period 2013-2015 the country experienced strong growth – the average for the period was around 3.8% – and the indicator peaked at 5.2% in the fourth quarter of 2015. In 2016, real GDP continued to grow but at a much lower rate – the average growth during this year was 1.2%. During the first two quarters of 2017, Morocco’s real GDP rose by 3.8% and 4.2% respectively.
The week in data
Highlights from national statistics releases tracked by MGI this week include:
- Cyprus’s Real GDP increased 3.8% in 2017Q3 compared to 2016Q3 (flash estimate) http://bit.ly/2iUoQ3H
- Italy’s Real GDP grew 0.5% QoQ and 1.8% YoY in 2017Q3 (preliminary estimate)
- Palestine's CPI in October 2017 increased 0.2% (MoM) and 0.97% (YoY)
- Turkey added 204,000 jobs in August 2017 vs July 2017. Unemployment rate stood at 10.8% (seasonally-adjusted data)
- France's CPI increased 1.1% (YoY) and 0.1% (MoM) in October 2017 (final estimate)
- Croatia's CPI in October 2017 increased 0.4% compared to the previous month and 1.4% (YoY)
- France's unemployment rate in 2017Q3 stood at 9.7% (+ 0.2% compared to 2017Q2)
In the coming week, we expect consumer and business confidence data for several Mediterranean countries. MGI’s complete data release schedule can be viewed at our release calendar section.
Monday 20 November, 2017:
- Greece current account for September
- Israel inflation expectations for November
- France 3-month, 6-month and 12-month BTF auction
- Montenegro current account for 2017Q3
- Turkey central government debt for October
Tuesday 21 November, 2017:
- Lebanon inflation rate for October
- Spain industrial order and balance of trade for September
- Spain 3-month Letras auction
- Slovenia PPI for October
- Slovenia employment (detailed registered data) for September
Wednesday 22 November, 2017:
- Turkey consumer confidence for November
- Morocco inflation rate for October
- Slovenia consumer confidence for November
- Croatia registered unemployment rate for October
Thursday 23 November, 2017:
- Palestinian Territories balance of trade for September
- France business confidence for November
- France services, manufacturing and composite PMI for November, flash estimate
- Israel unemployment rate and employment for October
Friday 24 November, 2017:
- Spain PPI for October
- Italy industrial orders and industrial sales for September
- Slovenia business confidence for November and tourist arrivals for September
- Cyprus retail sales for September
- Montenegro IPI for October
- Turkey business confidence and capacity utilization for November
- France registered unemployed for October