MGI Weekly round-up | 29 December 2017
Stories MGI has been tracking this week:
- Libya’s oil production falls due to pipeline explosion
- Morocco receives a loan from France to buy locomotives
- Montenegro’s parliament approves 2018 budget
And as always, we feature content from the MGI data and analysis platform, a summary of the week’s key statistical releases, and a look to the week ahead in data. This week, we use the MGI platform (NATSTATS section) to look at the evolution of real GDP in Montenegro.
Libya's oil output falls due to pipeline explosion
On Tuesday, armed men blasted a pipeline pumping crude oil from the south of Libya to the country's largest export terminal in the north. According to a military source, the attackers arrived in the area near Marada in two cars and put explosives on the pipeline. The explosion caused oil production to drop by 70,000-100,000 barrels a day, the National Petroleum Company said. Oil prices rose to a 2 ½-year high on reports of the explosion.
Libya’s oil production was last put by officials at around one million barrels per day, Reuters reports.
Morocco receives a loan from France to buy locomotives
France provided Morocco with €128 million to finance the acquisition of locomotives by Morocco's National Railway Operator (ONCF). The agreement – signed by the Moroccan Minister of Economy and Finance and the French Ambassador to Morocco – will support the modernization of the country's electric traction and locomotive fleet, while contributing to the protection of the environment.
In October 2017, the North African country received a loan of €80 million from the French Development Agency (AFD) to finance the last part of the Tangier-Casablanca high-speed train (TGV) project, while six years before the Agency granted €220 million to the ONCF for the establishment of the TGV project, Morocco's World News reports.
Montenegro’s parliament approves 2018 budget
On Tuesday, Montenegrο’s Parliament approved the budget for 2018, projecting a budget deficit of 2.6% of GDP (double its 2017 level). Projections for revenues and expenditures amounted to €1.705 billion and €1.821 billion respectively, pointing to a deficit of €116.2 million.
The budget assumed GDP growth of 3% for next year (-1.2% compared to 2017). The biggest contribution to real GDP growth is expected to come from household spending and from investment in fixed capital formation. In addition, inflation is expected to increase to 2.6% (+ 0.1% compared to 2017) and then to decline in 2019 and 2020.
In the first nine months of this year, the country’s budget deficit increased by €74.5 million over the same period of 2016 – reaching a value of €102.7 million, SeeNews reports.
Featured content from the MGI data and analysis portal
In this newsletter, we use the NATSTATS section of the MGI platform to look at the evolution of real GDP ΥοΥ % change in Montenegro over the 2011Q1-2017Q3 period. GDP growth averaged 2.2% over the period under review and was positive for almost all quarters - excluding 2001Q1 and 2012. The indicator reached a peak of 5.9% in the third quarter of 2011 and a minimum of 3.6% in the first quarter of 2012. In the first three quarters of this year, growth was strong, with an average of 4.3%.
The budget approved by Montenegro’s Parliament on Tuesday predicts GDP growth of 3% for 2018.
The week in data
Highlights from national statistics releases tracked by MGI this week include:
- Cyprus's IPI in October 2017 increased 8.1% over October 2016
- Palestine’s Real GDP grew 5% YoY and 3.1% QoQ in 2017Q3 (preliminary estimates)
Next week, we expect inflation rate and manufacturing and services PMI figures for several Mediterranean countries. MGI’s complete data release schedule can be viewed at our release calendar section.
Tuesday 2 January, 2018:
- Spain Manufacturing PMI and new car sales for December
- Italy Manufacturing PMI for December
- France Manufacturing PMI for December, final estimate
- France 3-month, 6-month and 12-month BTF auction
- Greece Manufacturing PMI for December
- Israel foreign exchange reserves for December
Wednesday 3 January, 2018:
- Turkey inflation rate and PPI for December
- Spain registered unemployed and consumer confidence for December
Thursday 4 January, 2018:
- Spain Services PMI for December
- Spain 3-year, 5-year Bonos auction and 10-year Obligacion auction
- Italy Services PMI for December
- Italy unemployment rate and employment for November
- Italy domestic and harmonized inflation for December, preliminary estimates
- France Services and Composite PMI for December, final estimate
- France 10-year OAT auction
- Lebanon BLOM PMI for December
- Cyprus inflation rate for December
Friday 5 January, 2018:
- Palestinian Territories IPI for November
- France consumer confidence for December
- France domestic and harmonized inflation for December, preliminary estimates
- Cyprus index of production in construction for 2017Q3
- Italy retail sales for November
- Egypt foreign exchange reserves for December
- Turkey treasury cash balance for December